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11 Cards in this Set

  • Front
  • Back

The Demographic Transition Model

All nations experience changes in natural pop. increase


over their history - “demographic transitions”

Stage 1: Low Growth

The longest stage in human history. Hunting & gathering through agrarian society.
· Lots of births: Lack of family planning, High Infant Mortality Rate, Need for workers in agriculture, Religious beliefs, Children are economic assets.
· But also high deaths: disease, Famine, Lack of clean water and sanitation, poor health care, war, competition for food, lack of education-knowledge about sanitation.

Stage 1 looks like...

Triangle/pyramid b/c of lots of babies

Stage 2: High Growth - Early Expanding

Pop growth took off during Ind. Revolution improved technology led to greater yields / efficiency. High births rates continued but by 1900’s - medical revolution helped many live through smallpox, bacterial infections, improved sanitation, food transport & storage, knowledge of water born disease.

stage 2 looks like..

triangle that is starting to taper in at the bottom so less wide

Stage 3: Moderate Growth- Late Expanding

-The death rate continues to drop slowly with continued med. improvements but birth rates drop


-family planning available, lower infant mortality rate, increased standard of living access to birth control


-changing status of women

stage 3 looks like...

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Stage 4: Low Growth / Stationary Population Level (SPL)

-Zero pop growth (ZPG) when births = deaths. At / below TFR 2.1


-People know the kids will survive, kids are expensive, lifestyle, education and opportunities for women


-various social customs/values = less babies

stage 4 looks like....

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stage 5: declining

birth rate: very low


Death rate: low


Natural increase: slow decrease


reasons for changes in birth rate: family planning,good health, improving status of women, later marriages


Reasons for change sin death rate: healthcare, reliable food supplies

Some Weaknesses?

All models have assumptions / idealized generalization


· Assumes all nations pass through all 4 stages and assumes that industrialization must occur.
· the fall in pop. growth of stage 3 has been slowed by religion, political policy, access to birth control


· Nations that have pop. growth from immigration don’t fit in. ie. Canada-USA.