The book “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver, so far has emphasize the skill of using probability and statics which is a practical art of mathematical model building. I believe Silver takes a big-picture approach using statics, combining sources of data (ex. Baseball), sound statics and analysis, and historical data which is tested by many researchers and experts who have significant roles in the media. In the first six chapters, Silver covers the topics; the failure to predict the 2008 housing bubble in chapter 1, political predictions in chapter 2, baseball predictions in chapter 3, weather prediction in chapter 4, earthquake predictions in chapter 5, and communication of predictions in chapter 6. These six chapters take readers, including me on a journey of why so many predictions are not as accurate as we think and what can be done to fix the
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Even though computers have gotten better with technology but humans still have a 25% accuracy of precipitation models than computers alone. Weather is considered to be exponential and when initial factors are off by small amounts it makes a huge impact. I think the predictions made about weather are important because many times we are given warnings but act slowly to them. Then we will complain and be shocked when the worst case scenario happens. I think Silver wants us to wake up and be cautious to the warnings that we receive.
In chapter 5, it talks about earthquakes and how we do not have the ability to predict them. However, we know some regions are more earthquakes prone than others. However scientists continue to try and make these predictions but still result in inaccurate data.
In chapter 6, we discuss the economic issues that occurs and how exponential growth of things will not yield more signal, but more noise. The danger in big data is losing sight of this underlying data
Even though computers have gotten better with technology but humans still have a 25% accuracy of precipitation models than computers alone. Weather is considered to be exponential and when initial factors are off by small amounts it makes a huge impact. I think the predictions made about weather are important because many times we are given warnings but act slowly to them. Then we will complain and be shocked when the worst case scenario happens. I think Silver wants us to wake up and be cautious to the warnings that we receive.
In chapter 5, it talks about earthquakes and how we do not have the ability to predict them. However, we know some regions are more earthquakes prone than others. However scientists continue to try and make these predictions but still result in inaccurate data.
In chapter 6, we discuss the economic issues that occurs and how exponential growth of things will not yield more signal, but more noise. The danger in big data is losing sight of this underlying data