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26 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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The Decision Environment |
Naturalistic Decision Making: Real World, Situation Model, Course of Action Analytical Decision Making: Analysis Test, Decision Analysis |
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Analytical Decision Making |
A Professional Requirement: working level, management level, strategic and policy level A Conscious Process: cognitive performance, meta-cognitive evaluation A Learnable Skill: methodologies, experience and practice, feedback and adjustment, dealing with stress, working collaboratively |
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Two Main Types of Decision Analyses |
Certain Outcomes Probabilistic Outcomes |
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Decisions with Certain Outcomes |
Typical Conditions: a number of acceptable alternatives, alternatives have several known attributes or characteristics, objective is to select best alternative Typical Decision Criteria: min cost, max return, max utility Useful Method: options, attributes, utility function, weighting function |
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MAUA |
Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis |
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MAUA method |
-options and attributes -dominated option -monetary equivalents -utility measure of value -attribute weights -weighted multi-attribute utility -sensitivity |
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Utility |
-puts the various attributes on an equivalent value basis -measures the amount of value associated with each attribute |
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Weight |
measures the relative importance of each attribute to the final decision |
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Weighted MAUA |
takes into account both the value and importance of decision attributes |
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MAUA Summary |
-chose meaningful value measure -perform realistic and honest decision analysis -For weltman: chose car based on appearance, individuality/uniqueness, social interaction -one of the greatest benefits of decision analysis is that it can prevent decision makers from making really bad decisions |
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Decisions with Probabilistic Outcomes |
-Conditions: several alternatives, probabilistic outcomes and consequences, optimal choice among alternatives -Typical Decision Criterion: min cost, max value, max utility -Use method: decision tree/influence diagram: alternatives and outcomes, positive and negative factors, probability/likelihood of effects, expected value of alternatives |
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A Trimmed Decision Tree |
Has no: negative or cost factors, uncertainties, relative importances -and as a result it is useless for meaningful decision making |
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Influence Diagram: Condensed Decision Tree |
-actions, objectives and factors, outcome values -eg decision is to select a site for a new solar panel factory |
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Influence Diagram Steps |
-assign values -select the action -analyze the results -sensitivity |
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The "Take Away" |
-there are useful methodologies for making analytical decisions -these methodologies allow for inclusion of societal/ethical factors -computer modeling and computation can greatly assist the process but -decision maker knowledge and experience is generally included so -decision makers have to guard against biases and unwarranted assumptions |
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Example of Biases |
estimating deaths per year -rare but highly publicized events are overestimated -common but less individualized events are underestimated -researchers have studied a variety of other biases that can effect the rationality of decisions made on the basis of commonly used heuristics |
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Case Study: Martha Stewart at a Decision Point |
-broker's assistant tells her insider owners are selling ImClone stock -has to choose between selling and holding stock -makes intuitive decision on the basis of potential inside information to sell stock and is prosecuted by SEC -makes analytical decision, does a back of the envelope analysis and sees the difference in expected value and holds her stock -makes an ethical decision, makes an ethical audit and recognizes it is unethical to sell her stock on inside information even if it might be legal, holds her stock |
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Summary: Ethics in Decision Making |
The Controlling Factor: ethics trumps economics, we don't do that, we have to do this Another Benefit and Cost Factor: personal, organizational or societal values and weights Product of an Ethical Culture: project and team, organizational, national and international A Personal Action: being ethical versus having ethics, what do you stand for, what do you do about it |
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Group Decision Making |
-a common process today -decision groups are: long standing or ad hoc, generally multi-disciplinary, local or remote, advisory or final -the decision making procedure is: unstructured and unaided, structured: analytical, another methodology, structured and aided |
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Unstructured Decision group Procedure |
groping groping and griping groping and grasping grasping and grouping group action |
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Early Group Decision Analysis Aid |
Computer Aided: RT participation tree construction value elicitation conflict resolution option analysis |
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Aided vs. Unaided Team Activities |
Aided groups spend their time more evenly over analytical decision activities -unaided groups focus mainly on information exchange and action generation |
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State of the Art Decision Support System |
1. provides a common analytical framework 2. organizes relevant situational info 3. highlights and resolves situational data conflicts 4. guides development of influence diagrams 5. enables evaluation and comparison of COA options 6. highlights decision relevant information |
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Decision Making Under Stress |
-the cause of stress: assessment that task demands may exceed personal capacity -response to stress: physiological, psychological -the effects of stress on decision making: nervous system response leaves less capacity for problem solving, narrowed attentional reduces options considered, decisions are hurried strategies for mitigating the effects of stress: recognize stress level, expect and understand psycho-physiological effects, depend more on structured procedures, learn to use the stress energy productively |
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The Decision Matrix |
The right thing in engineering decision making is: include all the relevant factors, make best use of the information at hand |
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Danger: Not Admitting to Bad Decisions |
-resolution of cognitive dissonance: alternatives look better after they are chosen, mind's self-congratulation -good features of cognitive dissonance: don't sweat the small stuff, helps you feel good about yourself -bad features of cognitive dissonance: holding on to false premises in the face of later facts, rationalizing one's choices, escalating wrong courses of action, avoiding blame when blame is due, failing to learn from mistakes |
