Question 1: What is the outlook for the US Economy over the next 12 months?
In the midst of a presidential election, which will cumulate in November, the next 12 months represent an interesting period for the United States and its economy. Election years bring uncertainty, not only to the financial markets ripe with speculation, but also the domestic and international businesses that will need to contend with possible policy changes that will accompany a transition of power. The November elections, while effective in sparking uncertainty, will have their greatest impact following their completion, when a new Congress and President will dictate U.S. economic policy.
Apart from the election, the U.S. essentially remains one of the few bright spots in an otherwise lackluster global economy. Beat down by a commodity crisis, the United States has thus far proved resilient, despite an energy sector that has grown substantially over the past few years. The rest of the world has struggled, whether its emerging countries still disproportionately reliant on commodities, or Europe and Japan fighting an ongoing battle with deflation. The U.S. dollar has appreciated due, in part, to this global weakness, and thus reduced the attractiveness of American exports in markets already experiencing diminished demand. The U.S. economy faces stiff economic headwinds as global GDP growth figures look nascent, and with even China, a significant growth driver, experiencing a slow down. Nonetheless, the U.S. labor market continues to improve with unemployment hovering around five percent and the labor participation rate finally starting to inch up. The consistently strong labor figures coincide with a robust real estate market, but concerns still exist around a stubbornly low inflation rate and first quarter GDP figures that came in disappointingly low. In essence, the outlook for the U.S. market over …show more content…
What sectors will outperform in emerging markets over the next decade?
Many emerging markets benefit from a relatively stable political and business environment and an abundant supply of inexpensive labor. These conditions have provided them a competitive advantage in industries such as manufacturing, which allow them to mount the first rungs on the ladder of development. The establishment of factories within these nations spurs export-driven economic growth, initially, but as income rises, these nations begin to develop middle classes. Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, commonly known as the “BRICS”, largely epitomize this cursory explanation of development.
As emerging market economies evolve and diversify, certain sectors will emerge and thrive in these markets saturated with cheap labor. Two sectors that could outperform in these markets over the next decade are technology services and retail. Technology services, such as call centers and help support desks, represent a sizable opportunity for these nations with large populations of low-skilled labor that require less pay than their counterparts in developed nations. This growth opportunity extends beyond technical support centers, however, to other services such as data entry and transcription, which are in high demand but also very labor intensive. The services sector has not reached its full potential due to a number of factors—lack of capital, lack of skills, language barriers, etc.—but these barriers are slowly eroding and, in some cases, non-existent. India is a prime example of the opportunities available, with companies such as Tata Consultancy and Infosys exemplifying the success the nation has