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46 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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What are the sequential risk management processes?
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Plan Risk Management
Identify Risks Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Plan Risk Responses Monitor and Control Risks |
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What are inputs to Risk Management?
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Project background information
Historical records from previous projects Past lessons learned Company processes and procedures Organizational risk tolerances Organizational risk thresholds Company culture Project charter Project scope statement Team Work breakdown structure Network Diagram Time and costs estimates Communications management plan Staffing management plan Procurement management plan Stakeholders |
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What are outputs to Plan Risk Management?
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Methodology
Roles and responsibilities Budgeting Timing Risk categories Definitions of probability and impact Stakeholder tolerances Reporting formats Tracking |
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What are risk categories?
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External
Internal Technical Unforeseeable |
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Definition of external risk
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Regulatory, environmental, government, market shifts
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Definition of Internal risk
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Time, cost, or scope changes; inexperience; poor planning; people; staffing; materials; equipment
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Technical
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Changes in technology
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Unforeseeable
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Only a small portion of risks (some say about 10%) are actually unforeseeable
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What are sources of risks?
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Schedule
Cost Quality Scope Resources Customer (Stakeholder) Satisfaction |
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Information gathering techniques
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Brainstorming
Delphi Technique Interviewing Root Cause Analysis |
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Definition of Brainstorming
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Usually done in a meeting where one idea helps generate another.
Usually done in the presence of a facilitator |
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Definition of Delphi Technique
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Technique is used to achieve consensus among experts who participate anonymously.
Prevents individual bias. Delphi Technique allows people to disclose risks and issues which they do not want to discuss in front of a group. |
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Definition of Interviewing
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AKA Expert interviewing
Consists of team or project manager interviewing project participants, stakeholders, or experts to identify risks on the project or a specific element of work. |
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Root Cause Analysis
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The identified risks are reorganized by their root causes to help identify more risks.
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Funnel Analysis
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A type of interviewing technique where we start with a general or high level questions and get into specific or particular questions.
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Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) Analysis
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This analysis looks at the project to identify its strengths and weaknesses and thereby identify risks.
Strength and Weaknesses = Internal Opportunity and Threat = External |
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Checklist Analysis
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This technique looks at the checklist of risk categories that was discussed in Plan Risk Management. The checklist is used to help identify specific risks in each category.
A project manager gets the lowest level of risk of a completed similar project and it is used to create a checklist. |
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Assumption Analysis
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Analyzing what assumptions have been made on the project and whether they are valid may lead to the identification of more risks.
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What is the output of identify risks?
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Risk Register
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What is included in Risk Register?
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Lists of risks
List of potential responses Root causes of risks Updated risk categories |
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What is the output of Qualitative Risk Analysis
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Risk Register Updates
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What is added to the risk register after Qualitative Risk Analysis?
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Risk ranking for the project compared to other projects
List of prioritized risks and their probability of impact ratings Risk grouped by categories Lists of risks for additional analysis and response List of risks required additional analysis in the the near term Watch list (non critical and non-top risks) Trends |
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What is qualitative analysis used for?
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Compare the risk of the project to the overall risks of other projects.
Determine whether the project should be selected, continued or terminated Determine whether to proceed to the Perform Quantitative Analysis or Plan Risk Responses processes. |
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What are tools used in the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Process?
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Probability and Impact Matrix
Risk Data Quality Assessment Risk Categorization Risk Urgency Assessment |
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What are the actions for quantitative risk analysis?
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Further investigate the highest risks on the project
Determine the type of probability distribution that will be used (triangular, normal, beta, uniform, or log normal distributions) Perform sensitivity analysis to determine which risks have the most impact on the project Determine how much quantified risk the project has through expected monetary value analysis or Monte Carlo Analysis |
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How do you determine Quantitative Probability and Impact?
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Interviewing
Cost and time estimating Delphi Technique Use of historical records from previous projects Expert judgement Expected monetary value analysis Monte Carlo Analysis Decision Trees |
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What is added to the risk register after Quantitative Risk Analysis?
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Prioritized list of quantified risks
Amount of contingency time and cost reserves needed Possible realistic and achievable completion dates and project costs, with confidence levels, versus the time and cost objectives for the project The quantified probability of meeting project objectives Trends in quantitative risk analysis |
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What are strategies for negative risks or threats?
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Avoid
Transfer Mitigate Accept |
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Definition of Avoid Risk
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Eliminate the threat by eliminating the cause
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Definition of Mitigate Risk
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Reduce the probability or the impact of a threat, thereby making it a smaller risk and removing it from the list of top risk on the project.
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Definition of Transfer Risk
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Make another party responsible for the risk by purchasing insurance, performance bonds, warranties, or by outsourcing the work
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Definition of Accept Negative Risk
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Project team has decided not to change the project management plan to deal with a a risk, or is unable to identify any other suitable response strategy
Passive acceptance: Required no action except to document the strategy, leaving the project team to deal with the risks as they occur. Active acceptance: Establish a contingency reserve |
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What are strategies for positive risks or opportunities?
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Exploit
Share Enhance Accept |
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Definition of Exploit Risk
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Add work or change the project to make sure the opportunity occurs
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Definition of Enhance Risk
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Increase the likelihood and/or positive impacts of the risk event
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Definition of Share Risk
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Allocate ownership of the opportunity to a third part (Partnership, team or joint venture)
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Definition of Accept Positive Risk
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Accepting an opportunity is being willing to take advantage of it, if it comes along, but not actively pursuing it
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What are outputs of Plan Risk Responses
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Risk register updates
Project management plan updates Project document updates |
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What is added to the risk register after Plan Risk Responses?
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Residual risks
Contingency plans Risk response owners Secondary risks Risk triggers Contracts Fallback plans Reserves (Contingency) |
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Definition of Residual Risks
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Risks that remain after risk response planning
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Definition of contingency plans
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Plans describing the specific actions that will be taken if the opportunity of threat occurs
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Definition of Risk response owners
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Project manager assigns someone who may help develop the risk response and who will be assigned to carry out the risk response
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Definition of Secondary risks
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Any new risks created by the implementation of selected risk response strategies
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Definition of Risk Triggers
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Events that trigger the contingency response. Early warning signs for a risk.
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Definition of Fallback plans
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These are plans for specific actions that will be taken if the contingency plan is not effective
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What is added to the risk register after Monitor and Control Risks?
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Outcomes of the risk reassessments and risk audits
Updates to previous parts of risk management, including the identification of new risks Closing of risks that are no longer applicable eDetails of what happened when risks occurred Lessons learned |
