Introduction and Substantive Importance
Civil wars are regional violent conflicts confined to a state’s border affecting the lives of those living within its borders whether it be through direct involvement in fighting, forced migrations, and economic degradation among other factors. Due to the evident physical impacts of civil wars its predicates must be evaluated. This essay will consider a potential predicate: electoral violence and its effects on civil war facilitating the following research question: Does electoral violence increases the risk of civil war? If found, a positive correlation can affirm a precursor to civil war in turn facilitating the development and incorporation of civil-war preventative techniques ante-elections. This …show more content…
The temporal restriction on the dependent variable (Y) is the post-election period contingent on the dependent variable – election year. The unit of analysis for both the dependent and independent variables are states. I forward the causal theory that greater electoral violence causes civil war. The underlying causal mechanism of the theory and between variables dictates that electoral violence in terms of disenfranchisement through discrimination coercion and bribery along with violent/nonviolent protests, killings, and kidnappings causes a reactionary response to political actions. These reactionary responses lead to violent uprisings of the oppressed due to the lack of political recourse resulting in a civil war fought for the purpose of advancing or seizing political …show more content…
This result leads us to overestimate the relationship between (X) and (Y). In order to account for this potential confounding variable, this experiment must consider a large number of cases with varying effects of political actors (both parties/individuals holding some ideological political power and non-government affiliated individuals). Finally, the problem the of accountability of reports of electoral violence must be taken into consideration in two ways, first, an overestimation must be consider as the total incidents reported may include false reports. Second, an underestimation of total incidents reported will exclude unreported incidents. Therefore, to control for this problem, a margin of error must be included in the electoral violence index.
Conclusion Civil wars are destructive to states and those individuals living in them Their effects stretch beyond physical damage to psychological, societal and cultural damage that may be irreversible. Evidence adduced in support of this theory will shape the way electoral violence is perceived and reacted to, saving the state and its individuals from irreversible
Civil wars are regional violent conflicts confined to a state’s border affecting the lives of those living within its borders whether it be through direct involvement in fighting, forced migrations, and economic degradation among other factors. Due to the evident physical impacts of civil wars its predicates must be evaluated. This essay will consider a potential predicate: electoral violence and its effects on civil war facilitating the following research question: Does electoral violence increases the risk of civil war? If found, a positive correlation can affirm a precursor to civil war in turn facilitating the development and incorporation of civil-war preventative techniques ante-elections. This …show more content…
The temporal restriction on the dependent variable (Y) is the post-election period contingent on the dependent variable – election year. The unit of analysis for both the dependent and independent variables are states. I forward the causal theory that greater electoral violence causes civil war. The underlying causal mechanism of the theory and between variables dictates that electoral violence in terms of disenfranchisement through discrimination coercion and bribery along with violent/nonviolent protests, killings, and kidnappings causes a reactionary response to political actions. These reactionary responses lead to violent uprisings of the oppressed due to the lack of political recourse resulting in a civil war fought for the purpose of advancing or seizing political …show more content…
This result leads us to overestimate the relationship between (X) and (Y). In order to account for this potential confounding variable, this experiment must consider a large number of cases with varying effects of political actors (both parties/individuals holding some ideological political power and non-government affiliated individuals). Finally, the problem the of accountability of reports of electoral violence must be taken into consideration in two ways, first, an overestimation must be consider as the total incidents reported may include false reports. Second, an underestimation of total incidents reported will exclude unreported incidents. Therefore, to control for this problem, a margin of error must be included in the electoral violence index.
Conclusion Civil wars are destructive to states and those individuals living in them Their effects stretch beyond physical damage to psychological, societal and cultural damage that may be irreversible. Evidence adduced in support of this theory will shape the way electoral violence is perceived and reacted to, saving the state and its individuals from irreversible