Bayesian Network And System Dynamics Theory

The second source is a book which introduced the basic concepts and applications of this methodology. The authors concentrated on the causal discovery of networks and the techniques of using Bayesian networks. Furthermore, they discussed the utilisation of this methodology for causal modelling. This source is important at the initial stage of the project as it contributes to the decision-making process at the modelling technique selection stage. However, it is not as important as the other two sources after it was decided not to be used as the modelling method for the system model of this project.
Bayesian networks are diagrams for uncertain interpretation in which the nodes denote factors which can either be discrete or continuous, X = X1, …show more content…
Therefore, the two methods have the same score for these criteria. The information needed can be obtained from the internet and books from the university library. On top of that, guidance is also given by a PhD student who is knowledgeable about system dynamics as well as Bayesian networks. System dynamics scores higher for the second criteria with the reason being that the data to be modelled is aggregated. Furthermore, trends are easier to be demonstrated using a system dynamics model. On the other hand, Bayesian network is a graphical illustration which enables the depiction and rationale of an undefined parameter [9]. This results in system dynamics being graded higher in achieving the project objectives. However, the execution of Bayesian network is easier when done in software because it involves the calculation of the probability of a certain scenario occurring [9], while system dynamics on the other hand attempts to recognise the principal and manner of a system [5]. System dynamics obtained an overall score of 0.08 while Bayesian network got -0.08. Therefore, system dynamics will be used for modelling the system, using the simulation software called