Introduction Does American military presence abroad lead to an increase in anti-american sentiment? This paper will discuss this theory and propose an experimental research design to test it in the real world.
Substantive Significance The substantive importance of this question lies in its relevance to the making of American foreign policy. While the United States remains the world’s preeminent power, international relations are becoming increasingly multipolar. The United States must work in cooperation with its allies to achieve its international goals. However, cooperation implies willingness on the part of the other country, and if feelings of anti-american sentiment materialize, cooperation will become politically difficult for both governments. If excessive military presence is found to reduce the popular opinion of the United States abroad, then this may shape American foreign policy to develop soft power, which some argue is as important as military power. Causal Theory Having established why this research question is worthy of consideration, this paper will suggest that American military presence abroad does in fact lead to an increase in anti-american sentiment. The independent variable in this theory is American military presence, measured in the number of American troops stationed in a foreign country. The dependant variable is anti-american sentiment, measured by the local population’s perceptions of America’s influence. Given these variables, one must consider the causal mechanism linking the number of troops to anti-american sentiment. While foreign troops can be seen as either a protector or an occupier, the circumstances under which they arrive is usually less than ideal. The presence of troops may mask previous conflicts, and while the troops may remain as a form of deterrence to further conflict, they can serve as a reminder of past defeats. For the operationalization of this theory, it will be measured in Japan, where American troops have remained since Japan’s defeat at the end of the Second World War. However, regardless of the history surrounding the presence of the military, it serves as a symbol of foreign intervention into a sovereign country’s domestic affairs. Experimental Research Design Type of Experiment Given the theory suggested above, this paper will suggest that a survey experiment is most conducive to testing this theory. Other research designs, while also feasible, had significant shortcomings in measuring the chosen theory. For example, a laboratory experiment requires voluntary participants to take part in an experiment conducted in a laboratory setting. While this allows for the utmost control over variables, given that participants submit to the experiment voluntarily, they may not be representative of the population for which the theory ought to apply. A field experiment allows for a larger sample size than a laboratory experiment, however, the treatments are real world interventions and for the theory in question this is simply not feasible. A government is not likely to manipulate the level of troops stationed in a foreign country for the purpose of an experiment. A survey experiment takes a random sample of the population and thus is more likely to be representative of the population for which the findings ought to apply. Moreover, the treatments are different framings of a question, which is more suitable to the dependant and independent variables identified in this theory. Thus, a survey experiment is the most suitable for the theory in question. Experiment design The participants in the proposed …show more content…
Given the theory that the number of American troops deployed increases anti-american sentiment, there is a possibility of reverse causality. It is plausible to assume that high levels of anti-american sentiment might attract the deployment of troops to the region as a way to maintain order. However, the reverse is also plausible. A region with high levels of anti-american sentiment might be perceived as too dangerous and thus for the safety of the individual troops, they are withdrawn from the region. Nonetheless, the research design as proposed above cannot necessarily control for these factors. Rather, the findings of the research ought to be taken in light of this information. Moreover, the specifics of the hypothesis seem to mitigate the possibility of such reverse causality. The survey is to be conducted in Japan, and while research may discover feelings of resentment towards the American military stationed there, these feelings are not likely to be so strong as to warrant
Substantive Significance The substantive importance of this question lies in its relevance to the making of American foreign policy. While the United States remains the world’s preeminent power, international relations are becoming increasingly multipolar. The United States must work in cooperation with its allies to achieve its international goals. However, cooperation implies willingness on the part of the other country, and if feelings of anti-american sentiment materialize, cooperation will become politically difficult for both governments. If excessive military presence is found to reduce the popular opinion of the United States abroad, then this may shape American foreign policy to develop soft power, which some argue is as important as military power. Causal Theory Having established why this research question is worthy of consideration, this paper will suggest that American military presence abroad does in fact lead to an increase in anti-american sentiment. The independent variable in this theory is American military presence, measured in the number of American troops stationed in a foreign country. The dependant variable is anti-american sentiment, measured by the local population’s perceptions of America’s influence. Given these variables, one must consider the causal mechanism linking the number of troops to anti-american sentiment. While foreign troops can be seen as either a protector or an occupier, the circumstances under which they arrive is usually less than ideal. The presence of troops may mask previous conflicts, and while the troops may remain as a form of deterrence to further conflict, they can serve as a reminder of past defeats. For the operationalization of this theory, it will be measured in Japan, where American troops have remained since Japan’s defeat at the end of the Second World War. However, regardless of the history surrounding the presence of the military, it serves as a symbol of foreign intervention into a sovereign country’s domestic affairs. Experimental Research Design Type of Experiment Given the theory suggested above, this paper will suggest that a survey experiment is most conducive to testing this theory. Other research designs, while also feasible, had significant shortcomings in measuring the chosen theory. For example, a laboratory experiment requires voluntary participants to take part in an experiment conducted in a laboratory setting. While this allows for the utmost control over variables, given that participants submit to the experiment voluntarily, they may not be representative of the population for which the theory ought to apply. A field experiment allows for a larger sample size than a laboratory experiment, however, the treatments are real world interventions and for the theory in question this is simply not feasible. A government is not likely to manipulate the level of troops stationed in a foreign country for the purpose of an experiment. A survey experiment takes a random sample of the population and thus is more likely to be representative of the population for which the findings ought to apply. Moreover, the treatments are different framings of a question, which is more suitable to the dependant and independent variables identified in this theory. Thus, a survey experiment is the most suitable for the theory in question. Experiment design The participants in the proposed …show more content…
Given the theory that the number of American troops deployed increases anti-american sentiment, there is a possibility of reverse causality. It is plausible to assume that high levels of anti-american sentiment might attract the deployment of troops to the region as a way to maintain order. However, the reverse is also plausible. A region with high levels of anti-american sentiment might be perceived as too dangerous and thus for the safety of the individual troops, they are withdrawn from the region. Nonetheless, the research design as proposed above cannot necessarily control for these factors. Rather, the findings of the research ought to be taken in light of this information. Moreover, the specifics of the hypothesis seem to mitigate the possibility of such reverse causality. The survey is to be conducted in Japan, and while research may discover feelings of resentment towards the American military stationed there, these feelings are not likely to be so strong as to warrant